Does the Market Turn at the Midpoint of Mercury Retrograde? We Tested All 241 Since 1950
“The night of July 12 is the exact midpoint of Mercury's retrograde — watch for a direction change that day.” We heard this in a trading community this week, and it is the best kind of claim: specific, dated, and checkable. So we checked it — first the astronomy, then all 241 retrograde midpoints in 76 years of S&P 500 history. The date is right. The edge isn't there.
First, the Astronomy Checks Out
Three times a year, Mercury appears to reverse course and drift backwards through the zodiac for about three weeks. The current retrograde runs from June 29 to July 23, 2026, and its halfway date — the midpoint between the two stations — falls on the night of July 11–12. So the claim's astronomy is accurate. It is also not arbitrary: the midpoint of a retrograde coincides almost exactly with Mercury's inferior conjunction, the moment it passes directly between Earth and the Sun. In traditional astrology this is the “cazimi” — the heart of the retrograde — and it is a natural candidate for a turning point if Mercury cycles drove markets at all.
That gives us a clean, mechanical test. We computed geocentric Mercury positions from a Swiss Ephemeris for every day from 1950 to 2026, detected all retrograde periods, took each one's time midpoint, and asked one question: did the S&P 500 change direction on or near that day more often than it does on any random day?
The Test
“Direction change” has to be defined before looking, or it will stretch to fit whatever the chart shows. We used a standard swing pivot: the highest or lowest close of a ±5 trading-day window. A midpoint scores a hit if such a pivot lands within two trading days of it. That is a generous definition — a five-day window either side, and a two-day tolerance on top.
The crucial step — the one chart-scrollers never run — is the control: how often does a randomly chosen trading day pass the exact same test? We measured that with 2,000 random-date resamples of the same size.
117 / 241
Midpoints with a pivot within ±2 trading days (48.5%)
52.1%
Hit rate of a random trading day on the same test
48.5% against a 52.1% base rate (p ≈ 0.27). The retrograde midpoint is not a turn date — it is a date, and turns are simply common. Widening or tightening the definitions does not rescue it:
Every Window We Tested
| Pivot within… (±5-day swing) | Midpoint hit rate | Any-day base rate |
|---|---|---|
| Exact day | 11.2% | 11.4% |
| ±1 trading day | 33.6% | 33.4% |
| ±2 trading days | 48.5% | 52.0% |
| ±3 trading days | 56.8% | 65.4% |
We repeated the grid with looser (±3-day) and stricter (±8-day) swing definitions: twelve combinations in all. Not one beat its base rate. At the widest windows the midpoints actually score belowrandom — most plausibly noise from the way market turns cluster, not evidence that Mercury suppresses reversals.
The recent past tells the same story: of the 33 retrogrades since 2016, 18 midpoints (54.5%) had a nearby pivot — a coin flip, exactly as the base rate predicts. Check enough of them by eye and half will look like brilliant calls.
All 241 Retrogrades — Check Every One Yourself
Don't take the summary's word for it. Below is every Mercury retrograde since 1950 with its midpoint and whether the S&P 500 pivoted there. Click any row to open the actual chart with the midpoint day highlighted — the hits and the misses look exactly alike until you know which is which.
241
Retrogrades 1950–2026
117 (48.5%)
Midpoints with a pivot
52.1%
Random-day base rate
Click any row to open an S&P 500 chart with the midpoint day highlighted. A pivot means SPX printed the highest or lowest close of a ±5 trading-day window within ±2 trading days of the retrograde midpoint.
| Midpoint | Retrograde | Pivot? | Pivot date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | Feb 26, 2026 – Mar 20, 2026 | — | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Nov 9, 2025 – Nov 29, 2025 | Low | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Jul 18, 2025 – Aug 11, 2025 | High | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Mar 15, 2025 – Apr 7, 2025 | High | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Nov 26, 2024 – Dec 15, 2024 | High | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Aug 5, 2024 – Aug 28, 2024 | — | |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Apr 1, 2024 – Apr 25, 2024 | — | |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Dec 13, 2023 – Jan 2, 2024 | Low | Dec 20, 2023 |
| Sep 3, 2023 | Aug 23, 2023 – Sep 15, 2023 | High | Sep 1, 2023 |
| May 3, 2023 | Apr 21, 2023 – May 15, 2023 | Low | May 4, 2023 |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Dec 29, 2022 – Jan 18, 2023 | — | |
| Sep 21, 2022 | Sep 10, 2022 – Oct 2, 2022 | — | |
| May 22, 2022 | May 10, 2022 – Jun 3, 2022 | Low | May 19, 2022 |
| Jan 24, 2022 | Jan 14, 2022 – Feb 4, 2022 | — | |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Sep 27, 2021 – Oct 18, 2021 | — | |
| Jun 10, 2021 | May 29, 2021 – Jun 22, 2021 | High | Jun 14, 2021 |
| Feb 9, 2021 | Jan 30, 2021 – Feb 20, 2021 | — | |
| Oct 23, 2020 | Oct 13, 2020 – Nov 3, 2020 | — | |
| Jun 30, 2020 | Jun 18, 2020 – Jul 12, 2020 | Low | Jun 26, 2020 |
| Feb 27, 2020 | Feb 16, 2020 – Mar 10, 2020 | Low | Feb 28, 2020 |
| Nov 10, 2019 | Oct 31, 2019 – Nov 20, 2019 | — | |
| Jul 19, 2019 | Jul 7, 2019 – Aug 1, 2019 | Low | Jul 19, 2019 |
| Mar 16, 2019 | Mar 5, 2019 – Mar 28, 2019 | — | |
| Nov 26, 2018 | Nov 16, 2018 – Dec 6, 2018 | Low | Nov 23, 2018 |
| Aug 7, 2018 | Jul 26, 2018 – Aug 19, 2018 | High | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Apr 3, 2018 | Mar 22, 2018 – Apr 15, 2018 | Low | Apr 2, 2018 |
| Dec 12, 2017 | Dec 3, 2017 – Dec 22, 2017 | — | |
| Aug 24, 2017 | Aug 12, 2017 – Sep 5, 2017 | — | |
| Apr 21, 2017 | Apr 9, 2017 – May 3, 2017 | — | |
| Dec 29, 2016 | Dec 19, 2016 – Jan 8, 2017 | Low | Dec 30, 2016 |
| Sep 10, 2016 | Aug 30, 2016 – Sep 22, 2016 | — | |
| May 10, 2016 | Apr 28, 2016 – May 22, 2016 | High | May 10, 2016 |
| Jan 15, 2016 | Jan 5, 2016 – Jan 25, 2016 | Low | Jan 20, 2016 |
| Sep 28, 2015 | Sep 17, 2015 – Oct 9, 2015 | Low | Sep 28, 2015 |
| May 30, 2015 | May 19, 2015 – Jun 11, 2015 | — | |
| Jan 31, 2015 | Jan 21, 2015 – Feb 11, 2015 | Low | Jan 30, 2015 |
| Oct 14, 2014 | Oct 4, 2014 – Oct 25, 2014 | Low | Oct 15, 2014 |
| Jun 19, 2014 | Jun 7, 2014 – Jul 1, 2014 | High | Jun 20, 2014 |
| Feb 17, 2014 | Feb 6, 2014 – Feb 28, 2014 | — | |
| Oct 31, 2013 | Oct 21, 2013 – Nov 10, 2013 | High | Oct 29, 2013 |
| Jul 8, 2013 | Jun 26, 2013 – Jul 20, 2013 | — | |
| Mar 6, 2013 | Feb 23, 2013 – Mar 17, 2013 | — | |
| Nov 16, 2012 | Nov 6, 2012 – Nov 26, 2012 | Low | Nov 15, 2012 |
| Jul 27, 2012 | Jul 15, 2012 – Aug 8, 2012 | Low | Jul 25, 2012 |
| Mar 23, 2012 | Mar 12, 2012 – Apr 4, 2012 | Low | Mar 22, 2012 |
| Dec 3, 2011 | Nov 24, 2011 – Dec 13, 2011 | — | |
| Aug 14, 2011 | Aug 3, 2011 – Aug 26, 2011 | High | Aug 15, 2011 |
| Apr 11, 2011 | Mar 30, 2011 – Apr 23, 2011 | — | |
| Dec 20, 2010 | Dec 10, 2010 – Dec 30, 2010 | — | |
| Aug 31, 2010 | Aug 20, 2010 – Sep 12, 2010 | — | |
| Apr 29, 2010 | Apr 18, 2010 – May 11, 2010 | — | |
| Jan 5, 2010 | Dec 26, 2009 – Jan 15, 2010 | Low | Dec 31, 2009 |
| Sep 18, 2009 | Sep 7, 2009 – Sep 29, 2009 | High | Sep 22, 2009 |
| May 18, 2009 | May 7, 2009 – May 30, 2009 | Low | May 15, 2009 |
| Jan 21, 2009 | Jan 11, 2009 – Feb 1, 2009 | Low | Jan 20, 2009 |
| Oct 4, 2008 | Sep 24, 2008 – Oct 15, 2008 | — | |
| Jun 7, 2008 | May 26, 2008 – Jun 19, 2008 | High | Jun 5, 2008 |
| Feb 8, 2008 | Jan 28, 2008 – Feb 19, 2008 | Low | Feb 6, 2008 |
| Oct 22, 2007 | Oct 12, 2007 – Nov 1, 2007 | Low | Oct 19, 2007 |
| Jun 27, 2007 | Jun 15, 2007 – Jul 10, 2007 | Low | Jun 26, 2007 |
| Feb 25, 2007 | Feb 14, 2007 – Mar 8, 2007 | — | |
| Nov 7, 2006 | Oct 28, 2006 – Nov 17, 2006 | Low | Nov 3, 2006 |
| Jul 16, 2006 | Jul 4, 2006 – Jul 28, 2006 | Low | Jul 17, 2006 |
| Mar 13, 2006 | Mar 2, 2006 – Mar 25, 2006 | Low | Mar 9, 2006 |
| Nov 23, 2005 | Nov 14, 2005 – Dec 3, 2005 | High | Nov 25, 2005 |
| Aug 4, 2005 | Jul 23, 2005 – Aug 16, 2005 | High | Aug 3, 2005 |
| Mar 31, 2005 | Mar 19, 2005 – Apr 12, 2005 | Low | Mar 29, 2005 |
| Dec 10, 2004 | Nov 30, 2004 – Dec 20, 2004 | — | |
| Aug 21, 2004 | Aug 9, 2004 – Sep 2, 2004 | — | |
| Apr 18, 2004 | Apr 6, 2004 – Apr 30, 2004 | Low | Apr 20, 2004 |
| Dec 27, 2003 | Dec 17, 2003 – Jan 6, 2004 | — | |
| Sep 8, 2003 | Aug 28, 2003 – Sep 20, 2003 | High | Sep 8, 2003 |
| May 8, 2003 | Apr 26, 2003 – May 20, 2003 | — | |
| Jan 12, 2003 | Jan 2, 2003 – Jan 22, 2003 | High | Jan 14, 2003 |
| Sep 25, 2002 | Sep 14, 2002 – Oct 6, 2002 | High | Sep 26, 2002 |
| May 27, 2002 | May 15, 2002 – Jun 8, 2002 | — | |
| Jan 28, 2002 | Jan 18, 2002 – Feb 8, 2002 | — | |
| Oct 11, 2001 | Oct 1, 2001 – Oct 22, 2001 | — | |
| Jun 16, 2001 | Jun 4, 2001 – Jun 28, 2001 | Low | Jun 18, 2001 |
| Feb 14, 2001 | Feb 3, 2001 – Feb 25, 2001 | — | |
| Oct 28, 2000 | Oct 18, 2000 – Nov 8, 2000 | Low | Oct 26, 2000 |
| Jul 5, 2000 | Jun 23, 2000 – Jul 17, 2000 | — | |
| Mar 3, 2000 | Feb 21, 2000 – Mar 14, 2000 | High | Mar 3, 2000 |
| Nov 15, 1999 | Nov 5, 1999 – Nov 25, 1999 | — | |
| Jul 24, 1999 | Jul 12, 1999 – Aug 6, 1999 | — | |
| Mar 21, 1999 | Mar 10, 1999 – Apr 2, 1999 | Low | Mar 23, 1999 |
| Dec 1, 1998 | Nov 21, 1998 – Dec 11, 1998 | High | Nov 27, 1998 |
| Aug 11, 1998 | Jul 31, 1998 – Aug 23, 1998 | — | |
| Apr 8, 1998 | Mar 27, 1998 – Apr 20, 1998 | Low | Apr 8, 1998 |
| Dec 17, 1997 | Dec 7, 1997 – Dec 27, 1997 | — | |
| Aug 29, 1997 | Aug 17, 1997 – Sep 10, 1997 | Low | Aug 29, 1997 |
| Apr 26, 1997 | Apr 14, 1997 – May 8, 1997 | — | |
| Jan 2, 1997 | Dec 23, 1996 – Jan 12, 1997 | Low | Jan 2, 1997 |
| Sep 15, 1996 | Sep 4, 1996 – Sep 26, 1996 | — | |
| May 15, 1996 | May 3, 1996 – May 27, 1996 | — | |
| Jan 19, 1996 | Jan 9, 1996 – Jan 30, 1996 | — | |
| Oct 2, 1995 | Sep 22, 1995 – Oct 13, 1995 | High | Sep 28, 1995 |
| Jun 5, 1995 | May 24, 1995 – Jun 17, 1995 | High | Jun 5, 1995 |
| Feb 5, 1995 | Jan 25, 1995 – Feb 16, 1995 | — | |
| Oct 19, 1994 | Oct 9, 1994 – Oct 30, 1994 | High | Oct 19, 1994 |
| Jun 24, 1994 | Jun 12, 1994 – Jul 6, 1994 | Low | Jun 24, 1994 |
| Feb 22, 1994 | Feb 11, 1994 – Mar 5, 1994 | — | |
| Nov 4, 1993 | Oct 25, 1993 – Nov 15, 1993 | Low | Nov 4, 1993 |
| Jul 13, 1993 | Jul 1, 1993 – Jul 25, 1993 | High | Jul 14, 1993 |
| Mar 10, 1993 | Feb 27, 1993 – Mar 22, 1993 | High | Mar 10, 1993 |
| Nov 21, 1992 | Nov 11, 1992 – Dec 1, 1992 | — | |
| Jul 31, 1992 | Jul 19, 1992 – Aug 13, 1992 | High | Aug 3, 1992 |
| Mar 28, 1992 | Mar 16, 1992 – Apr 9, 1992 | — | |
| Dec 8, 1991 | Nov 28, 1991 – Dec 18, 1991 | — | |
| Aug 19, 1991 | Aug 7, 1991 – Aug 31, 1991 | Low | Aug 19, 1991 |
| Apr 16, 1991 | Apr 4, 1991 – Apr 28, 1991 | High | Apr 17, 1991 |
| Dec 24, 1990 | Dec 14, 1990 – Jan 3, 1991 | High | Dec 21, 1990 |
| Sep 5, 1990 | Aug 25, 1990 – Sep 17, 1990 | High | Sep 5, 1990 |
| May 5, 1990 | Apr 23, 1990 – May 17, 1990 | — | |
| Jan 9, 1990 | Dec 30, 1989 – Jan 20, 1990 | — | |
| Sep 22, 1989 | Sep 11, 1989 – Oct 3, 1989 | Low | Sep 25, 1989 |
| May 24, 1989 | May 12, 1989 – Jun 5, 1989 | High | May 22, 1989 |
| Jan 25, 1989 | Jan 15, 1989 – Feb 5, 1989 | — | |
| Oct 9, 1988 | Sep 28, 1988 – Oct 20, 1988 | High | Oct 10, 1988 |
| Jun 12, 1988 | May 31, 1988 – Jun 24, 1988 | — | |
| Feb 12, 1988 | Feb 2, 1988 – Feb 23, 1988 | — | |
| Oct 26, 1987 | Oct 16, 1987 – Nov 6, 1987 | — | |
| Jul 3, 1987 | Jun 21, 1987 – Jul 15, 1987 | Low | Jul 1, 1987 |
| Mar 1, 1987 | Feb 18, 1987 – Mar 12, 1987 | — | |
| Nov 12, 1986 | Nov 2, 1986 – Nov 22, 1986 | High | Nov 11, 1986 |
| Jul 21, 1986 | Jul 9, 1986 – Aug 2, 1986 | — | |
| Mar 18, 1986 | Mar 7, 1986 – Mar 30, 1986 | High | Mar 14, 1986 |
| Nov 28, 1985 | Nov 18, 1985 – Dec 8, 1985 | — | |
| Aug 8, 1985 | Jul 27, 1985 – Aug 20, 1985 | — | |
| Apr 5, 1985 | Mar 24, 1985 – Apr 17, 1985 | Low | Apr 8, 1985 |
| Dec 14, 1984 | Dec 4, 1984 – Dec 24, 1984 | Low | Dec 13, 1984 |
| Aug 26, 1984 | Aug 14, 1984 – Sep 7, 1984 | — | |
| Apr 23, 1984 | Apr 11, 1984 – May 5, 1984 | Low | Apr 23, 1984 |
| Dec 31, 1983 | Dec 21, 1983 – Jan 10, 1984 | — | |
| Sep 13, 1983 | Sep 2, 1983 – Sep 24, 1983 | Low | Sep 15, 1983 |
| May 13, 1983 | May 1, 1983 – May 25, 1983 | — | |
| Jan 17, 1983 | Jan 7, 1983 – Jan 27, 1983 | — | |
| Sep 30, 1982 | Sep 19, 1982 – Oct 11, 1982 | Low | Sep 30, 1982 |
| Jun 1, 1982 | May 21, 1982 – Jun 13, 1982 | — | |
| Feb 2, 1982 | Jan 23, 1982 – Feb 13, 1982 | High | Jan 29, 1982 |
| Oct 16, 1981 | Oct 6, 1981 – Oct 27, 1981 | Low | Oct 14, 1981 |
| Jun 21, 1981 | Jun 9, 1981 – Jul 3, 1981 | High | Jun 23, 1981 |
| Feb 19, 1981 | Feb 8, 1981 – Mar 2, 1981 | Low | Feb 20, 1981 |
| Nov 2, 1980 | Oct 23, 1980 – Nov 12, 1980 | Low | Oct 30, 1980 |
| Jul 10, 1980 | Jun 28, 1980 – Jul 22, 1980 | — | |
| Mar 7, 1980 | Feb 25, 1980 – Mar 19, 1980 | — | |
| Nov 19, 1979 | Nov 9, 1979 – Nov 29, 1979 | — | |
| Jul 29, 1979 | Jul 17, 1979 – Aug 11, 1979 | — | |
| Mar 26, 1979 | Mar 14, 1979 – Apr 7, 1979 | High | Mar 27, 1979 |
| Dec 5, 1978 | Nov 25, 1978 – Dec 15, 1978 | High | Dec 6, 1978 |
| Aug 16, 1978 | Aug 4, 1978 – Aug 28, 1978 | High | Aug 17, 1978 |
| Apr 13, 1978 | Apr 1, 1978 – Apr 25, 1978 | — | |
| Dec 21, 1977 | Dec 11, 1977 – Dec 31, 1977 | Low | Dec 20, 1977 |
| Sep 2, 1977 | Aug 22, 1977 – Sep 14, 1977 | High | Sep 7, 1977 |
| May 1, 1977 | Apr 19, 1977 – May 13, 1977 | — | |
| Jan 7, 1977 | Dec 28, 1976 – Jan 17, 1977 | — | |
| Sep 19, 1976 | Sep 8, 1976 – Oct 1, 1976 | High | Sep 21, 1976 |
| May 20, 1976 | May 9, 1976 – Jun 1, 1976 | — | |
| Jan 24, 1976 | Jan 14, 1976 – Feb 3, 1976 | — | |
| Oct 7, 1975 | Sep 26, 1975 – Oct 18, 1975 | — | |
| Jun 10, 1975 | May 29, 1975 – Jun 22, 1975 | Low | Jun 12, 1975 |
| Feb 9, 1975 | Jan 30, 1975 – Feb 20, 1975 | — | |
| Oct 23, 1974 | Oct 13, 1974 – Nov 3, 1974 | High | Oct 21, 1974 |
| Jun 29, 1974 | Jun 17, 1974 – Jul 12, 1974 | — | |
| Feb 26, 1974 | Feb 15, 1974 – Mar 9, 1974 | — | |
| Nov 9, 1973 | Oct 30, 1973 – Nov 19, 1973 | — | |
| Jul 18, 1973 | Jul 6, 1973 – Jul 30, 1973 | — | |
| Mar 15, 1973 | Mar 4, 1973 – Mar 27, 1973 | High | Mar 14, 1973 |
| Nov 25, 1972 | Nov 15, 1972 – Dec 5, 1972 | — | |
| Aug 5, 1972 | Jul 24, 1972 – Aug 17, 1972 | — | |
| Apr 2, 1972 | Mar 21, 1972 – Apr 14, 1972 | Low | Mar 29, 1972 |
| Dec 12, 1971 | Dec 2, 1971 – Dec 22, 1971 | — | |
| Aug 24, 1971 | Aug 12, 1971 – Sep 5, 1971 | — | |
| Apr 21, 1971 | Apr 9, 1971 – May 3, 1971 | Low | Apr 21, 1971 |
| Dec 29, 1970 | Dec 19, 1970 – Jan 8, 1971 | — | |
| Sep 10, 1970 | Aug 30, 1970 – Sep 21, 1970 | High | Sep 8, 1970 |
| May 10, 1970 | Apr 28, 1970 – May 22, 1970 | — | |
| Jan 14, 1970 | Jan 4, 1970 – Jan 24, 1970 | — | |
| Sep 27, 1969 | Sep 16, 1969 – Oct 8, 1969 | — | |
| May 29, 1969 | May 17, 1969 – Jun 10, 1969 | — | |
| Jan 30, 1969 | Jan 20, 1969 – Feb 10, 1969 | — | |
| Oct 13, 1968 | Oct 3, 1968 – Oct 24, 1968 | Low | Oct 11, 1968 |
| Jun 18, 1968 | Jun 6, 1968 – Jun 30, 1968 | — | |
| Feb 17, 1968 | Feb 6, 1968 – Feb 28, 1968 | High | Feb 20, 1968 |
| Oct 31, 1967 | Oct 21, 1967 – Nov 10, 1967 | — | |
| Jul 8, 1967 | Jun 26, 1967 – Jul 20, 1967 | — | |
| Mar 6, 1967 | Feb 23, 1967 – Mar 17, 1967 | — | |
| Nov 16, 1966 | Nov 6, 1966 – Nov 26, 1966 | High | Nov 16, 1966 |
| Jul 26, 1966 | Jul 14, 1966 – Aug 7, 1966 | — | |
| Mar 23, 1966 | Mar 11, 1966 – Apr 4, 1966 | — | |
| Dec 2, 1965 | Nov 22, 1965 – Dec 12, 1965 | Low | Dec 6, 1965 |
| Aug 13, 1965 | Aug 1, 1965 – Aug 25, 1965 | High | Aug 17, 1965 |
| Apr 10, 1965 | Mar 29, 1965 – Apr 22, 1965 | — | |
| Dec 18, 1964 | Dec 9, 1964 – Dec 28, 1964 | High | Dec 21, 1964 |
| Aug 30, 1964 | Aug 19, 1964 – Sep 11, 1964 | — | |
| Apr 28, 1964 | Apr 16, 1964 – May 10, 1964 | Low | Apr 27, 1964 |
| Jan 5, 1964 | Dec 26, 1963 – Jan 15, 1964 | — | |
| Sep 17, 1963 | Sep 6, 1963 – Sep 29, 1963 | Low | Sep 18, 1963 |
| May 18, 1963 | May 6, 1963 – May 30, 1963 | — | |
| Jan 21, 1963 | Jan 11, 1963 – Jan 31, 1963 | — | |
| Oct 4, 1962 | Sep 24, 1962 – Oct 15, 1962 | — | |
| Jun 7, 1962 | May 26, 1962 – Jun 19, 1962 | — | |
| Feb 6, 1962 | Jan 27, 1962 – Feb 17, 1962 | — | |
| Oct 20, 1961 | Oct 10, 1961 – Oct 31, 1961 | — | |
| Jun 26, 1961 | Jun 14, 1961 – Jul 8, 1961 | Low | Jun 26, 1961 |
| Feb 23, 1961 | Feb 12, 1961 – Mar 6, 1961 | — | |
| Nov 6, 1960 | Oct 27, 1960 – Nov 16, 1960 | High | Nov 10, 1960 |
| Jul 15, 1960 | Jul 3, 1960 – Jul 27, 1960 | — | |
| Mar 12, 1960 | Mar 1, 1960 – Mar 24, 1960 | — | |
| Nov 23, 1959 | Nov 13, 1959 – Dec 3, 1959 | — | |
| Aug 3, 1959 | Jul 22, 1959 – Aug 15, 1959 | High | Aug 3, 1959 |
| Mar 30, 1959 | Mar 19, 1959 – Apr 11, 1959 | Low | Mar 31, 1959 |
| Dec 9, 1958 | Nov 30, 1958 – Dec 19, 1958 | Low | Dec 8, 1958 |
| Aug 21, 1958 | Aug 9, 1958 – Sep 2, 1958 | — | |
| Apr 18, 1958 | Apr 6, 1958 – Apr 30, 1958 | — | |
| Dec 26, 1957 | Dec 16, 1957 – Jan 5, 1958 | — | |
| Sep 7, 1957 | Aug 27, 1957 – Sep 19, 1957 | Low | Sep 10, 1957 |
| May 6, 1957 | Apr 25, 1957 – May 18, 1957 | High | May 2, 1957 |
| Jan 11, 1957 | Jan 1, 1957 – Jan 21, 1957 | — | |
| Sep 24, 1956 | Sep 13, 1956 – Oct 5, 1956 | — | |
| May 26, 1956 | May 14, 1956 – Jun 7, 1956 | Low | May 28, 1956 |
| Jan 28, 1956 | Jan 18, 1956 – Feb 8, 1956 | — | |
| Oct 11, 1955 | Oct 1, 1955 – Oct 22, 1955 | Low | Oct 11, 1955 |
| Jun 15, 1955 | Jun 3, 1955 – Jun 27, 1955 | — | |
| Feb 14, 1955 | Feb 3, 1955 – Feb 25, 1955 | High | Feb 11, 1955 |
| Oct 28, 1954 | Oct 18, 1954 – Nov 7, 1954 | Low | Oct 29, 1954 |
| Jul 5, 1954 | Jun 23, 1954 – Jul 17, 1954 | — | |
| Mar 3, 1954 | Feb 20, 1954 – Mar 14, 1954 | — | |
| Nov 13, 1953 | Nov 3, 1953 – Nov 23, 1953 | Low | Nov 17, 1953 |
| Jul 23, 1953 | Jul 11, 1953 – Aug 4, 1953 | Low | Jul 27, 1953 |
| Mar 20, 1953 | Mar 9, 1953 – Apr 1, 1953 | — | |
| Nov 29, 1952 | Nov 20, 1952 – Dec 9, 1952 | — | |
| Aug 10, 1952 | Jul 29, 1952 – Aug 22, 1952 | High | Aug 8, 1952 |
| Apr 6, 1952 | Mar 26, 1952 – Apr 18, 1952 | — | |
| Dec 17, 1951 | Dec 7, 1951 – Dec 27, 1951 | — | |
| Aug 28, 1951 | Aug 17, 1951 – Sep 9, 1951 | — | |
| Apr 26, 1951 | Apr 14, 1951 – May 8, 1951 | Low | Apr 24, 1951 |
| Jan 2, 1951 | Dec 23, 1950 – Jan 12, 1951 | — | |
| Sep 14, 1950 | Sep 3, 1950 – Sep 26, 1950 | — | |
| May 15, 1950 | May 3, 1950 – May 27, 1950 | Low | May 12, 1950 |
| Jan 18, 1950 | Jan 8, 1950 – Jan 29, 1950 | — |
Why the Claim Feels So True
1. Half of all dates “work”
With a ±2-day tolerance, 52% of all trading days sit near a swing pivot. Call any specific date in advance and you have a coin-flip chance of looking prophetic. A 50% hit rate feels remarkable when nobody mentions that the deck pays out 52% on random draws.
2. The event has real astronomical gravitas
The midpoint is the inferior conjunction — Mercury passing between Earth and the Sun. It sounds like it should matter, and that plausibility does the persuading. But “astronomically meaningful” and “market relevant” are separate claims, and only the second one was on trial here.
3. Three chances a year, remembered selectively
Mercury goes retrograde about three times a year, so a practitioner accumulates dozens of midpoint calls per decade. The ones that landed on the 2020 crash low or a major top get retold; the majority that landed mid-trend quietly vanish. Our table above keeps both.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the midpoint of a Mercury retrograde?
The halfway date between Mercury's station retrograde and station direct, which coincides almost exactly with its inferior conjunction with the Sun. For the June 29 – July 23, 2026 retrograde, that is the night of July 11–12.
Does the S&P 500 change direction on those days?
No more often than on any other day: 48.5% of the 241 midpoints since 1950 had a swing pivot within two trading days, against a 52.1% random-day base rate. No tested window or swing definition produced an edge.
Doesn't Mercury retrograde affect markets at all?
This study tested one specific, popular claim: the midpoint as a turn date. Other Mercury-cycle formulations (harmonic crossings, cycle-count analogs) are separate hypotheses — each needs its own base-rate test before it deserves belief. That is precisely the kind of testing we do on our platform.
How were the retrograde dates computed?
Daily geocentric Mercury longitudes from a Swiss Ephemeris, 1950–2026, with retrograde motion detected from the day-over-day longitude delta (wrap-aware at the 0°/360° boundary). That yielded 243 retrograde periods, of which 241 midpoints fall inside our S&P 500 price history.
We Test Cycles So You Don't Have to Eyeball Them
Seasonal Edge runs calendar and cycle patterns through decades of data with win rates, profit factors, and base-rate context — so you can see which recurring dates actually held up historically and which are folklore.
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